Forget markets; “accelerating global growth” is much more important than the machinations of Wall Street, although as Pure Facts pointed out late last year (HERE) the actual rate of growth to that point was neither particularly strong, nor out of the ordinary for the post post GFC era..
However the mood music continues to improve and is particularly highlighted by those who want to highlight how weak the UK is in context as we pay for the BREXIT decision.
So let’s jump straight in with the EU’s latest accelerating growth figures:
Source: Tradingeconomics.com Click/Tap to Enlarge
There; 0.6% growth more than….errr…..less than 0.7%, as you’d expect with accelerating slowing growth.
But German growth will be accelerating:
Source: Tradingeconomics.com Click/Tap to Enlarge
Well Italy is supposed to be on the right path:
Source: Tradingeconomics.com Click/Tap to Enlarge
Well Spain is flying:
Source: Tradingeconomics.com Click/Tap to Enlarge
From a pure facts basis we can see that for many key economies growth momentum, far from accelerating is actually, for the moment softening.
Also remember the long term charts examined in the previous piece (link at the top) show this period of “strong” growth to be within the post GFC range and really rather weak on a longer term historical basis.
Additionally this says nothing of how disappointing they might seem to be after a period of sustained monetary stimulus unparalleled in all of human history for its excess.
Granted all these figures are positive, as they are for most countries most of the time, but all show fading, not increasing momentum and thus we have to remind ourselves the it was the OECD who introduced the terms “synchronized”, “global” and, apparently “recovery”, although what they actually said of course was “synchronized short term global up-turn”, which is slightly different.
Still it’s not all bad, look at France:
Source: Tradingeconomics.com Click/Tap to Enlarge
Yes France is slightly stronger than last quarter, as are its neighbours to the North, Belgium, Holland and Denmark which all showed improved growth.
On a global scale however let’s look at other major economies, starting with the US:
Source: Tradingeconomics.com Click/Tap to Enlarge
Rate of growth slowing, so China?
Source: Tradingeconomics.com Click/Tap to Enlarge
Interestingly even largely fictional growth rates are fading.
How about the “Lucky Country”, Australia?
Source: Tradingeconomics.com Click/Tap to Enlarge
OK? How about Japan which pulled a surprise last year with a sharp pick up in growth:
Source: Tradingeconomics.com Click/Tap to Enlarge
Again all positive but fading momentum.
How about Global Trade, which suffered a slip in October, but bounced back in November (the last available figures) so remains positive over time:
Source: CPB.NL Click/Tap to Enlarge
While positive is is clear the annualised kicker came late 2017/18, almost as if Trump created a global trade growth spurt (don’t tell him…….he didn’t).
So what of BREXITing Britain?
Source: Tradingeconomics.com Click/Tap to Enlarge
While still less growth than the Eurozone as a whole at least momentum is accelerating for the moment.
Curious about Greece, soon to be released from its bailout restrictions, bathing in growth since the Eurozone illegally, dishonestly and unethically crushed re-purposed the Greek government in 2015:
Source: Tradingeconomics.com Click/Tap to Enlarge
Disappointing it has to be said, particularly when you see where their headline GDP stands at over ten years:
Source: Tradingeconomics.com Click/Tap to Enlarge
Well that’s sobering. Greece needs to grow by 82% to recover to where it was a decade ago.
However apart from Greece the above indicates nothing to get gloomy about, but also nothing to get particularly excited about, particularly if Central Banks follow through and continue reducing stimulus.
Perhaps of more interest, with stock markets having bounced back from the volatility “volocaust” of a couple of weeks ago do shares look fairly valued relative to potential growth?